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1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern

Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday,

although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm activity

is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds. However,

environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for

development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is

likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf

of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National

Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with

this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is

scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if

necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba

and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next

week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily

increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana

over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these

threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be

issued by 200 AM EDT Friday morning.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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