1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday,
although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm activity
is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is
likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf
of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if
necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba
and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next
week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 200 AM EDT Friday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.